Brazilian Journal of Population Studies

Entre trajetórias e agendas: os estudos sobre a relação população e ambiente revisitados

2024-11-02T22:01:00-03:00

In search of new demographic representations: the field of population grids in the era of machine learning

2024-04-04T16:14:22-03:00

The population distribution on the Earth's surface reveals a variety of spatial patterns that reflect sociodemographic processes related to the historical-geographical dynamics that produced them. Population grids have gained prominence as a source of population data, involving estimates and distribution in small areas. Each population grid consists of cells of specific sizes, covering the entire globe or specific local territories. This work presents a commented literature review in the field of these population representations, specifically in the distribution and volume of the population, and the importance of spatial auxiliary variables, referred to here as symptomatic variables. These play a crucial role in building reality-based models, both locally and globally, using various methods, including Machine Learning. The main initiatives in the field, available global products, and the technical foundations of the main methodologies are also highlighted. Additionally, the paper discusses limitations, precautions, and new opportunities resulting from the creation of these population grids.

Inequalities in the Brazilian labor market: a proposal for conceptualizing and measuring precarious work under the magnifying glass of intersectionality

2023-08-08T17:35:45-03:00

Acknowledging the centrality of work in people’s lives, this article aims to analyze the ongoing process of precarious work and its different impacts on population groups. The objective was to identify how precarious work operates from the perspective of the sexual division of labor and the historical racial segmentation of the Brazilian labor market. This article presents a proposal for the conceptualization and construction of a multidimensional indicator of precarious work, with results disaggregated by sex and color/race, based on data from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey, from IBGE, for the period 2012-2021. The differential of the proposed indicator is that it enables the measurement of precarious work in terms of incidence and intensity of precariousness within the scope of available official Brazilian public statistics. As a result, although women, in general, have shown lower rates of precariousness, they are more intensely precarious than men. On the other hand, black women stood out as the population group most affected by the ongoing precariousness, followed closely by black men, highlighting the importance of analyzing racial inequalities combined with gender inequalities in the labor market.

Regional inequalities in the enumeration of stillbirth records in information systems on vital statistics in Brazil

2023-08-22T16:44:24-03:00

This study aimed to analyze the variation in the number of stillbirths reported between the vital statistics system of the Civil Registry (RC) and the Mortality Information System (SIM) as well as to compare the trend in stillbirth rates (SBR) in both systems in Brazil between 2009 and 2019. Percent change (PC) was analyzed by comparing data sources for early (<28 weeks) and late (≥28 weeks) stillbirths. Clusters of Federation Units were obtained using the k-means method. Prais-Winsten generalized linear regression was applied in the analysis of the SBR trend.

The SIM showed a percentage of uptake 27.7% higher than RC in the period. A higher number of fetal deaths were reported on the SIM for Brazil and its regions, in both death strata. The North and Northeast regions presented the highest PC, as opposed to the most developed regions of the country, Southeast and South, where there was a convergence of 95%. Despite the reduction in PC in the decade analyzed, the SBR trend estimates remained underestimated in the RC. The conclusion, that the capture of fetal deaths was higher in the SIM, demonstrates the need for improvements in civilian registration of stillbirths, especially in the North and Northeast regions, recognized as the most vulnerable in the country.

Ethno-racial segregation in São Paulo and London metropolitan regions: reflections on a comparative study

2023-10-20T11:17:28-03:00

This paper analyzes ethno-racial residential segregation in two large metropolitan areas across the Global North and South: London (UK) and São Paulo (Brazil). Residential segregation is measured and mapped using global and local spatial segregation indices that portray different spatial dimensions across scales. To interpret results, the study adopted a relational approach that juxtaposes global figures and local variations of segregation, complementary dimensions of segregation (dissimilarity and exposure/isolation), multiple scales of segregation, and location patterns of different ethno-racial groups. Results indicate that London and São Paulo metropolitan regions have similar, although inverse, core-periphery patterns of ethno-racial segregation. The findings also revealed that segregation levels are higher for London than São Paulo across scales and dimensions, indicating that, against common assumptions, London is more ethno-racially segregated than São Paulo. These findings are discussed in the context of existing literature, exploring similarities and differences between ethno-racial segregation in the two metropolitan regions. The paper concludes with a discussion on the relevance of the comparative findings for segregation studies, and a reflection on future studies on urban segregation.

Decomposition of official population projections in Brazil

2023-12-29T11:43:33-03:00

Brazil’s population has continually changed over time. However, the effects of each demographic component on official population projections are still unclear. In this research, we replicate the Population Projections Revision 2018 of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics using a projection matrix model and the cohort-component method by sex, age and geographic regions. Thereafter, we established four alternative scenarios to decompose the official benchmark scenario into four demographic effects (fertility, age structure, mortality, and migration) and one residual effect. The results reveal that fertility and age structure effects have been the main drivers of the population dynamics between 2010 and 2060. On the one hand, the negative effect of fertility below replacement level has been mostly offset by the still positive effect of the age structure, even across regions in the country. On the other hand, age structure effect has been decreasing over time. By 2048, the effects of age structure, mortality and migration will no longer counterbalance fertility effects, resulting in a population decline.

Food insecurity and irregular access to drinking water: an overview of the Brazilian reality

2023-09-22T15:35:59-03:00

The present study aims to evaluate the coexistence of Food Insecurity (FI) and irregular access to drinking water in Brazil, and its relationship with sociodemographic and economic characteristics in the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic. It’s a cross-sectional study, with data from the I National Survey on Food Insecurity in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic in Brazil, carried out in 2,180 households in 128 municipalities in all Brazilian states, in 2020, which used the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale. Access to drinking water was classified as daily and non-daily/irregular. The prevalence of FI and non-daily access to drinking water and their concomitance were calculated, and factors associated with FI and coexistence with non-daily access to drinking water were analyzed using the Chi-Square and Multiple Logistic Regression tests (p<0.05). About 16.0% of the population was in a situation of FI and non-daily access to drinking water. Family farmers and rural producers, heads of low-income families and those residing in the North and Northeast had the highest magnitudes of coexistence. The prevalence of the coexistence of both scarcities was worrying, unequally affecting localities and population segments, with emphasis on rural areas, in households with worse socioeconomic conditions and the North and Northeast regions.

Food insecurity, subjective well-being and the use of social networking services in Brazil between 2014 and 2018

2024-01-15T15:37:48-03:00

The great Brazilian recession was the most marked drop in economic activity in Brazil between the end of the Second World War and the Covid-19 pandemics. This economic crisis may have long lasting and non-anticipated negative consequences on Food Insecurity (FI) and on Subjective Well-Being (SWB). In addition, SWB is increasing linked to the use of Social Networking Services (SNS). The paper used data from World Value Survey (WVS) and logistic and ordered logistic models to empirically test a few hypotheses. The empirical results showed that: FI is negatively correlated with life satisfaction, but not with happiness; FI is unrelated to SNS use as still few people use them and the population groups that suffer from FI insecurity poorly overlap with the one that use SNS daily; SWB had positive relationships with SNS when the use was not very widespread; Associations between SWB and SNS use became negative as SNS use became more widespread.

Economic effects of the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic: an empirical analysis of mortality on the economy of the state of São Paulo

2024-01-27T10:26:59-03:00

The aim of the paper is to identify the economic effects of the influenza pandemic that hit São Paulo in 1918, analyzing original primary sources. The contribution to economic historiography is the understanding of the short-term effects on the economy of São Paulo of the great pandemic of 1918, generally ignored by the economic literature over the effects of WWI. The results indicate that several sectors of São Paulo’s economy were affected in supply and demand by the effects of the increase in mortality, mainly in the last quarter of 1918. The effects were visible in private investment, with the drop in business registration, bank loans, the physical and value decrease in the industrial production of non-essential products and the increase of essential products in a context of public health crisis. However, the recovery was also quick, which explains, in part, why economic historiography pays little attention to identify the effects of the influenza on the economy.

Income loss and fertility intentions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil

2024-02-06T16:38:28-03:00

The study aims to examine how pandemic-induced income loss shaped fertility intentions at the pandemic’s onset, examining differences in this association between mothers and non-mothers, and whether effects are similar for intentions to postpone versus forgo childbearing. The research employs a mixed-method approach, combining population-level probabilistic survey data from 1,524 fecund partnered women aged 18-34 with qualitative insights gathered from 56 semi-structured interviews with women aged 18-39 in Pernambuco, Brazil. Multinomial regression models were utilized to distinguish between intentions to postpone, forgo, and get pregnant within six months, exploring associations with pandemic-induced income loss prior to the interview, motherhood status, and parity. We find that most women intended to avoid pregnancy at the onset of the pandemic, with key differences between intentions to postpone versus forgo between mothers versus non-mothers. Further, pandemic-induced income loss and motherhood/parity interacted to define fertility intentions. Whereas income loss did not affect non-mothers, mothers had different intentions depending on income loss, with those experiencing it more likely to postpone or forgo a pregnancy, and mothers of two or more children more likely to forgo a pregnancy altogether. Qualitative analysis corroborated these patterns and provided further nuanced sensitivity of fertility intentions to pandemic-induced income shocks.

Demographic factors responsible for income transfers and rural survival strategies in Amazonia: autonomy or dependence?

2024-03-19T11:14:21-03:00

The debate on the effectiveness of access to social benefits as a factor in overcoming poverty and vulnerability is marked by divergent views, ranging from a way of generating autonomy and empowerment to a perpetuation of dependency that nullifies individual capabilities and shifts responsibility to the State. However, there is a gap in this debate: understanding the effects of social benefits considering the demographic dynamics and the specific conditions of rural areas, particularly the households as production units, and their decisions on land use and labor allocation. Therefore, this article aims to evaluate the impact of access to social assistance benefits on the subsistence strategies of rural families, particularly regarding land use decisions and household labor allocation. It also assesses whether and how the demographic composition of families has a mediating effect on this impact. The paper proposes a case study based on a household survey in the municipality of Machadinho, Rondonia, in 2015, and uses a combination of descriptive statistics, tests of differences in means and accumulated probabilities using the Kaplan-Meier estimator of maintenance of rural production with receiving benefits. The results indicate that size and demographic composition are significant in determining both the dynamics of benefits and their relationship with rural subsistence strategies, including food safety investment in rural production, thus reinforcing the importance of benefits as an element of productive autonomy and strengthening individual and collective capacities for households in vulnerable situations.

Individual choice of private health coverage at different stages of the life cycle in a Health Maintenance Organization in Brazil

2024-01-09T16:17:00-03:00

This article examines the probability of staying enrolled in a health plan for beneficiaries of individual contracts with a Health Maintenance Organization in the southeastern region of Brazil from 2010 to 2018. Survival analysis was used to assess the risk of individuals terminating their contract with the operator or switching to a more restrictive plan. The main findings indicate the elderly are a stable group, with lower chances of leaving or switching plans compared to the population aged 25 to 59.

Migration and school flow of the 2008-2019 cohort of students in Minas Gerais

2024-01-21T16:04:10-03:00

Student migration is an important phenomenon that can have implications for educational outcomes. Few studies have evaluated its influence on academic outcomes, particularly in the context of developing countries. This study examines the relationship between migration and the school flow of the cohort of students from Minas Gerais enrolled in the first year of elementary school in 2008. Using longitudinal data from school censuses from 2008 to 2019, we compare the regularity of the school flow between migrant and non-migrants. The findings reveal a slight difference in the regularity of the school flow between non-migrants and migrants prior to migration. However, post-migration, the school flow of migrants becomes more irregular, except in cases where migrations coincide with school-level transitions. In particular, migration during the transition to secondary school shows strong positive selectivity beforehand and little variation afterward, suggesting migration may be driven by investing in education. These results underscore the importance of considering migration in studies on educational outcomes and highlight the benefits of longitudinal analysis for demographic studies.

Household growth and demographic transition in Latin America: implications for the analysis of housing needs

2024-05-20T15:43:18-03:00

The advancement of demographic transition brings immediate changes that shape household growth. This article examines the evolution of this process in Latin American countries and its implications for housing policy. Using census data from 17 countries in the region, as well as Spain and Portugal, this study employs a decomposition method to analyze the demographic factors influencing recent household growth. The findings highlight the diminishing impact of population growth itself. Furthermore, it underscores the increasingly influential role of age structure and behavioral factors in household formation. Since it is less predictable and closely linked to socioeconomic conjunctures, this last determinant introduces elements of uncertainty. As a result, the article concludes that enhancing methods to incorporate these components and their cyclical and uncertain trajectories into modeling household growth is essential. It also emphasizes the need to adopt housing policy planning strategies for the post-transitional future, where uncertainties will prevail.

Who takes care of the girl? Care provision and kinship structure in Latin America

2024-05-01T01:10:32-03:00

Fertility and mortality levels can define the size and structure of families. Family characteristics also determine caregiving relationships among its members, especially towards children. By using time-use surveys, fertility and mortality data from three Latin American countries with different demographic profiles (Colombia, Mexico, and Paraguay), and variable two-sex kinship models, the care received by children was estimated considering their kinship structure. By 2020, women in the studies nations spend 2.4 times more time than men on childcare, with Mexican women devoting the most time to this activity. We estimated that the number of relatives will decrease over time, leading to a reduction in potential caregiving time due to the decreasing availability of young relatives and the aging of older caregivers. Given the changes in family structures and the feminization of caregiving work, there is a recognized need to implement care systems that provide comprehensive services and redistribute these activities among family members, the community, and the state.

“I’m giving up on Brazil”: shifting migration aspirations and capabilities in the face of simultaneous crises

2024-06-17T13:49:40-03:00

Based on the aspirations-capabilities framework, this paper analyses how the overlap of three shocks - a national socio-political crisis, an economic downturn, and a socio-environmental disaster - influenced households' international migration aspirations, decisions and strategies. The study uses a mixed methods approach, including a statistically representative survey and eighteen semi-structured interviews conducted with households with and without international migration experience in Governador Valadares, one of the main emigration hotspots in Brazil. It argues that, despite similar representations of international migration across socioeconomic strata, people’s aspirations and capabilities to migrate in the context of multidimensional crises vary across class positions. These external shocks shaped migration aspirations not only instrumentally, diminishing access to financial and natural resources, but also symbolically, through feelings of dismay. The working poor report living in a ‘permanent state of crisis’ and see migration as a tool for improving living conditions. For the lower middle classes, these crises have rendered visible the mismatch between their (augmented) expectations, built during the early 2000s era of optimism, and their effective chances of social mobility. Migration, therefore, appears as a solution for accessing services they could once afford. For the upper-middle classes, these crises represented a rupture, with migration now being considered as a way of maintaining their quality of life and class position.

Family dynamics as a conditioning factor of residential mobility in metropolitan areas

2024-05-20T16:42:55-03:00

In the context of changing internal migration patterns and the organization of families, which significantly impacts urban expansion processes in Brazil, analyzing residential mobility in metropolitan regions has become a dynamic area of research. This article examines primary retrospective data on residential mobility collected in the Metropolitan Region of Grande Vitória (Brazil) in 2022. Our objective is to understand the trajectory of residential mobility and its relationship with family dynamics in households located in metropolitan expansion areas that experience varying levels of vulnerability to poverty. While home ownership is the primary reason for residential mobility, family events also play a significant role, closely linked to the stages of the family life cycle and the life transitions of its members. The results indicate that family dynamics influence all stages of residential mobility. Furthermore, the type of household arrangement affects the likelihood of relocation through home ownership, particularly for populations most at risk of poverty.

Prospective age and new measures of population aging: indicators for Brazil and its five regions

2024-06-24T20:41:53-03:00

The topic of measuring population aging is increasingly relevant in society, particularly when defining eligibility for certain public policies. This article presents a review of the analysis of population aging in Brazil. It begins by exploring new ways to conceptualize and measure population aging, and it emphasizes a subnational perspective that enhances the understanding of the ongoing aging process in the country. The objective is to use different age concepts to measure population aging and highlight some of the inequalities in this process. The study uses data from IBGE for Brazil and its five regions, covering the period between 1980 and 2060. The study's results show that population aging is a prevailing trend throughout all regions of Brazil. However, there are notable differences in the stages of aging among these regions. Some areas are further along in the aging process, as assessed by both traditional and prospective measures. Also, prospective measures indicate a slower rate of aging compared to traditional methods.

Sociodemographic conditions, migrations and housing tenure in Argentina

2024-04-17T17:38:30-03:00

This paper studies the housing tenure system in Argentina over recent decades. It reviews various theoretical perspectives related to the topic and utilizes secondary data from the Permanent Household Survey (EPH). The analysis focuses on the temporal and spatial dimensions, age structure, and migration, exploring these aspects in multiple facets and highlighting their significance for national development, the quality of life for individuals, and their relevance in shaping public policies. The results show a strong non-linear fit between age structure and housing tenure, indicating that the marginal effects decrease over time. There are also significant geographical disparities in housing access; provinces with the highest tendency to population outmigration also showed the highest percentage of homeowners. Migration also seems to play an important role, particularly as many immigrants opt for renting.

Meat consumption and racial/ethnic disparities in population-based study in the city Campinas, Brazil

2024-04-30T14:29:36-03:00

The aim of the present study was to investigate meat consumption among adults residing in a city in the countryside of São Paulo, Campinas, according to ethnicity/skin color in two periods: 2008/2009 and 2014/2015, given the scarce literature on the subject. Thus, we sought to evaluate the association between race/color and consumption of meat, a food of great cultural value, based on the hypothesis that this demographic marker is relevant to explain food choices. A cross-sectional population-based study evaluating participants from the Health Survey of the City of Campinas (ISACAMP) was conducted in 2008/2009 and 2014/2015, with 2,354 and 1,606 individuals respectively, aged 20y or older. Food consumption data were collected using the 24-hour food recall method and meats were classified according to animal origin and type of processing. Linear regression models were run to assess the association between meat consumption and sociodemographic variables with a significance level of 5%. Lower total consumption of meat, red meat, beef and fish was found among individuals with self-declared black skin color compared to those with self-declared white skin color. Red meat consumption varied from 109.4g to 157.9g in 2008/2009 and from 102.1g to 125.1g in 2014/2015 between the groups, remaining above the recommendation in both periods. The World Cancer Research Fund recommends consuming between 50 and 71.4 g/day of red meat; thus, these findings reinforce the importance of studies that investigate the impact of ethnicity on food consumption, since racial disparities may be in the origin of the insufficient or excessive consumption of certain types of meat, and understanding the factors associated with the consumption of types of meat is relevant for the adoption of health actions aimed at adequate food intake.

Three decades of fertility diffusion within consensual unions in Colombia: the probable end of the socioeconomic gradient in the family formation proces

2024-09-25T20:41:12-03:00

This article examines fertility patterns and levels among Colombian women based on the type of marital union and socioeconomic class. It focuses on the narrowing of gaps that previously characterized fertility behavior across socioeconomic groups. Using data from the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for the years 1995, 2005, and 2015, the article analyzes changes in the reproductive context that reflect evolving values surrounding family formation, supported by legal frameworks. There has been a general increase in consensual unions across all social groups over the decades. Notably, consensual unions now contribute significantly to the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Colombia, accounting for 57.5 % of total fertility. This represents a substantial increase of 39.4 percentage points compared to the share of married women in the TFR in the most recent year. More children are born of any union than within marriage.

Self-identification in the 2022 Ecuadorian census: demographic dynamics and structural barriers

2024-03-27T23:03:18-03:00

Issues related to ethnicity have gained significant attention in Latin American agendas. In Ecuador, censuses have historically faced limitations but have evolved since 2001 to include criteria for linguistic and ethnic self-identification. A comparison between the results of the 2022 Census and previous censuses reveals a reduction in the Indigenous population in certain territories, prompting this study to analyze the potential causes of this trend. This is an exploratory, descriptive, qualitative, and quantitative research using a post-census questionnaire and semi-structured interviews in selected parishes. Significant demographic changes were observed in the indigenous population, with a decrease in the young population of productive age and an increase in older adults. The demographic transition significantly affects both the population burden and the foundations of the indigenous population. Key factors influencing population dynamics include migration and fertility rates, as well as the methodology used in censuses, which has contributed to the reduction of registered individuals. Despite this decrease, it cannot be attributed to a loss of identity; rather, the data indicate a shift in population composition. It is crucial to continue analyzing the movement of the unreported population in these areas to gather relevant and reliable information for formulating inclusive public policies.

Fertility Transition in Brazil: investigation of the effects of exogenous crises on the recent trends of decline in live births

2024-08-19T14:53:20-03:00

Brazil has undergone economic and health crises (the Zika Virus epidemic in 2015-2016 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021), which sparked much debate about their potential effects on fertility, which is still in transition. In this article, we investigate instabilities that may signal exogenous shocks using the number of live births from the Live Births Information System (SINASC) and time series analyses controlled for seasonality, trend, and harmonic cycles. The decline in the number of births hides significant age, regional, and educational heterogeneity. Teenagers and young adults, especially those with lower education, experienced a substantial decline, while the number of births to older women has been increasing, which is related to changes in age composition and not completely explained when controlled for trends and seasonality. Analysis of structural breaks reveals that the effect of the Zika Virus epidemics and COVID-19 pandemic was significant but smaller than speculated, given the existing downward trend. Economic cycles seem to be the best explanation for fertility movements over the decade, especially for adult women. However, they do not explain the decline in live births among teenagers and young adult women, which at the beginning of the period may have been linked to ideational changes, and during the COVID-19 pandemic may be explained by the uncertainties following the announcement of the pandemic declaration.

Types of marital relations, gender roles, and socioeconomic differentials in Brazil

2024-09-30T18:32:10-03:00

The changes in family patterns since the second half of the 20th century require examining family structure beyond traditional size and composition. Cultural, institutional, and value-based transformations in society, along with their effects on the formation and dissolution of families, indicate that couple formation and domestic arrangements are increasingly diverging from the traditional model of gender specialization (male breadwinner/female homemaker). This paper examines the changes occurring in Brazil by exploring the relationships between gender role symmetry, types of marriage, and the organization of domestic responsibilities among spouses and partners. Utilizing data from the 2014 PNAD, Brazilian couples are classified along a spectrum of gender role traditionalism through a methodological approach known as latent profile analysis. The evidence indicates that a significant portion of couples in the country continue to follow a traditional division of responsibilities, with 42.4% adhering to this model. Additionally, nearly 39% of couples display traits of what is known as the "stagnant gender revolution." In these partnerships, women contribute financially alongside their partners, but they do not share domestic duties with them. Only a small proportion of couples with high educational levels and high incomes share domestic responsibilities equally, with only 12.6% achieving this balance. An analysis was conducted to examine the relationship between marital types, family formation, and gender egalitarian behaviors using multinomial logistic regression. The dependent variable represents the couple's stance on the spectrum of gender role traditionalism. The results indicate that more egalitarian partnerships may be more attainable for women who are formally married and have higher education.

Shifting Politics and the Makeover of Birth Control Policies

2024-06-17T18:10:04-03:00

Este artículo analiza dos fases marcadamente distintas de actitudes, políticas y acciones con respecto al control de la natalidad ya las políticas de población. A partir de la década de 1950, la preocupación por una inminente explosión demográfica validó políticas destinadas a reducir las tasas de fertilidad en los países en desarrollo a través de la planificación familiar. Este enfoque, motivado además por preocupaciones geopolíticas, eventualmente provocó controversias en relación con sus fundamentos académicos, sus prácticas coercitivas y sus implicaciones políticas. Sin embargo, las tasas de crecimiento demográfico en todo el mundo han disminuido significativamente. Más recientemente, las actitudes y acciones respecto al control de la natalidad se han revertido. La disminución de las tasas de natalidad en una amplia franja de países genera preocupaciones válidas. Pero una mentalidad reaccionaria –que vincula sexismo, religión, raza, inmigración y poder político– se ha apoderado del conservadurismo en el área de la reproducción humana, especialmente en Estados Unidos. Eso ha producido un fuerte grupo político que intenta recuperar una supremacía cristiana blanca mítica oponiéndose al control de la natalidad. En el proceso, las preocupaciones por la degradación ambiental, la equidad social y la democracia misma están amenazadas.

O Brasil tem muitos Brasis: a agenda de saúde sexual e reprodutiva do Cairo e a coleta de dados domiciliares

2024-10-29T07:39:22-03:00

30 anos da CIPD 1994: saúde, direitos sexuais e direitos (pós)reprodutivos na constituição da agenda de população e desenvolvimento

2024-11-04T12:45:39-03:00

Estimates of net migration balances and net migration rates of the Major Regions and Federation Units of Brazil by sex, age group, and urban/rural residence, 1960-1970 and 1970-1980

2024-10-30T15:26:51-03:00

This study estimates net migration balances and net migration rates for Brazilian regions and states from 1960-1970 and 1970-1980. Drawing on 1960, 1970, and 1980 census data, we estimate migration by sex, five-year age groups, and urban/rural residence. We use survival tables by Carvalho (1978) and Carvalho & Pinheiro (1986) to adjust for mortality. We apply the intercensal survival ratio (ISR) method for individuals aged ten and older, which adjusts national survival ratios to reflect local mortality levels. For cohorts born within each intercensal period, we use the method of observed ratios of children to women of reproductive age in the census data and distinguishing direct and indirect migration effects. We compile our estimates into a publicly accessible database, supporting further research on historical migration patterns in Brazil.

Nota dos editores

2025-01-14T11:57:03-03:00