Projections of skilled labor supply in Brazil: scenarios for the availability of engineers until 2020

Authors

  • Rafael Henrique Moraes Pereira University of Oxford e IPEA
  • Paulo A. Meyer M. Nascimento IPEA
  • Thiago Costa Araújo IPEA

Keywords:

Population projection, Higher education, Engineering workforce, Skilled workforce, Labor supply

Abstract

This paper presents a method to project degree-holding workforces in specific areas of knowledge in Brazil. The method uses a set of bases of public data (SIM/Datasus, Demographic Censuses, Higher Education Censuses, and Household Surveys). By combining a compensating equation with a simplified model of entries into and departures from the labor market, the methodology enables year-by-year projections with unbundled by sex and by five-year age groups. The study also shows the results of applying this methodology to the simulation of scenarios on the availability of professionals with college degrees in engineering, production and construction, for the Brazilian labor market until 2020. The scenarios are different in function of possible periods of growth to be seen in the number of persons entering and concluding college-level courses in these areas. If recent trends solidify, the Brazilian workforce may have between 1.6 and 2.3 million persons who have earned degrees in engineering in Brazil in 2020. The results also indicate two major changes in this area in coming years: feminization and rejuvenation.

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Published

2013-12-26

How to Cite

Pereira, R. H. M., Nascimento, P. A. M. M., & Araújo, T. C. (2013). Projections of skilled labor supply in Brazil: scenarios for the availability of engineers until 2020. Brazilian Journal of Population Studies, 30(2), 519–548. Retrieved from https://rebep.emnuvens.com.br/revista/article/view/373

Issue

Section

Original Articles