Population and development beyond the first demographic transition: a focus on the experience of East and Southeast Asian countries

Abstract

This paper covers a wide scope, focusing on some trends in East and Southeast Asia that may be of interest to Latin America. The first demographic transition has essentially been completed in both regions. The issue is what should now be the focus of our consideration of population and development? East Asian countries are now stressing issues of ultra-low fertility, and policies to raise fertility. They are not comfortable with the prospect of making up future deficits through international migration. The paper also deals briefly with studies of dynamics of change in mega-urban regions, and argues that comparative studies on Latin America and Asia could be valuable. Issues of poverty, development, and equity are then addressed, with particular emphasis on the role of education as a key to equality and development. One dilemma is that in East Asia, the generally commendable obsession with education is one factor making for very low levels of fertility. Finally, the paper touches on population and environmental issues.