Estimating age- and sex-specific mortality rates for small areas with TOPALS regression: an application to Brazil in 2010

Authors

  • Marcos Roberto Gonzaga Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN/Brazil)
  • Carl Paul Schmertmann Florida State University, USA

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20947/S0102-30982016c0009

Keywords:

Mortality. Small areas. TOPALS method. Poisson regression.

Abstract

High variability in recorded vital events creates serious problems for small-area mortality estimation by age and sex. Many existing approaches to fitting local mortality schedules, including those most often used in Brazil, estimate rates by making rigid mathematical assumptions about local age patterns. Such methods assume that all areas within a larger area (for example, microregions within a mesoregion) have identically-shaped log mortality schedules by age. We propose a more flexible statistical estimation method that combines Poisson regression with the TOPALS relational model (DE BEER, 2012). We use the new method to estimate age-specific mortality rates in Brazilian small areas (states, mesoregions, microregions, and municipalities) in 2010. Results for Minas Gerais show notable differences in the age patterns of mortality between adjacent small areas, demonstrating the advantages of using a flexible functional form in regression models.

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Author Biographies

Marcos Roberto Gonzaga, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN/Brazil)

Assistant Professor of Demography and Actuarial Science, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN/Brazil). Associate Researcher in the Demography Graduate Program (PPGDEM-UFRN). Bolsista da Capes – Proc. BEX 5151/15-5. Pd.D., Demography (CEDEPLAR/UFMG). Areas of interest: methods for population forecasting, small area mortality estimations, health and disability transitions, formal demography, statistical demography.

Carl Paul Schmertmann, Florida State University, USA

Professor, Department of Economics, and Research Associate, Center for Demography and Population Health, Florida State University, USA. Ph.D., Economics, University of California-Berkeley. Areas of interest: statistical demography, formal demography, demographic methods.

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Published

2016-12-31

How to Cite

Gonzaga, M. R., & Schmertmann, C. P. (2016). Estimating age- and sex-specific mortality rates for small areas with TOPALS regression: an application to Brazil in 2010. Brazilian Journal of Population Studies, 33(3), 629–652. https://doi.org/10.20947/S0102-30982016c0009

Issue

Vol. 33 No. 3 (2016)

Section

Original Articles

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